Today is Election Day!

While things here in Southern California lack the political intensity of races in Virginia and New Jersey, we do have elections happening in Los Angeles County today. There was only one race on my ballot, and I’m going to drop my absentee ballot off later today at a polling place. I will be out with students observing polling places in our local area all day, and of course will report on anything interesting or unusual. But as turnout is likely to be very low in our area today, I doubt we will see many people in polling places.

Afghan presidential runoff scrapped

In an interesting round of developments, Abdullah Abdullah pulled out of the Afghan runoff election scheduled for this coming weekend. Because of the lack of a challenger in the runoff election, the Afghan Independent Election Commission declared Hamid Karzai the winner of the presidential election. Here are details from the BBC. It’s an unusual outcome, as many were closely watching to see if the Afghans could conduct this presidential runoff, in short order, and in a way that could avoid the many allegations of fraud that surrounded the first round of elections.

Scantegrity II voting system to be used in tomorrow’s Takoma Park (Maryland) election

VTP colleague Ron Rivest passed this press release along to me this morning. I look forward to hearing more about how things go when they use Scantegrity II in tomorrow’s election in Takoma Park:

Update: the MIT Technology Review had a lengthy story yesterday about the Scantegrity II system.

Guest Blog: Lonna R. Atkeson, “The Future of Post Election Auditing”

Last weekend, I had the pleasure of participating in a policy discussion on election auditing in Alexandria, Virginia with academics across many disciplines, election administrators, activists, and policy makers. We spent over a day and half talking about election auditing and where it needed to head next and what technological advances we’d need to get us there. Among other things, everyone was very excited about the possibility of ballot based post election auditing and it looks like several jurisdictions are in a position to test such a process. After much discussion, compromise and careful thought, the participants agreed on the following statement that was forwarded to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST):

October 29, 2009
National Institute of Standards and Technology
100 Bureau Drive, Stop 1070
Gaithersburg, MD 20899-1070

We, the undersigned, participated in a working meeting on vote tabulation audits hosted by the American Statistical Association (ASA) on October 23 and 24, 2009. We write to emphasize that future iterations of the Voluntary Voting System Guidelines (VVSG) should facilitate effective vote tabulation audits. We applaud the VVSG II’s requirement for independent voter-verifiable records (IVVRs). This requirement is necessary to enable verification of election outcomes independently of the tabulation systems; it should be adopted as soon as possible. However, if election outcomes are to be verified efficiently, vote tabulation systems must meet requirements that go well beyond the draft VVSG 1.1.

Overview
Two key goals of vote tabulation audits are
i) To verify that the election outcomes implied by the reported vote totals are correct, and
ii) To provide data for process improvement: specifically, to identify and quantify various causes of discrepancies between voter intentions and the originally reported vote totals.
Difficulty in obtaining subtotals of the machine tallies to compare with manually-derived totals from small batches of ballots is a major problem. Efficient vote tabulation audits require – in addition to software-independent audit trails – timely, comprehensive, detailed, standardized, machine-readable subtotals of the votes as recorded by the vote tabulation systems. For greatest efficiency, individual ballot interpretations should be available to support emerging methods that audit at the ballot level (that is, batches of size 1) without breaching confidentiality. Future VVSGs should contain audit-related requirements for all voting systems, designed in consultation with experts in election auditing, to ensure that the next generation of voting
systems facilitate election audits.

Key areas for standards include:
• Usability of the paper record
• Comprehensive reporting of all important data elements
• Small-batch or individual ballot reporting capability
• Machine-readable, standard election result reporting formats, with support for standardized identification of contests and candidates, that facilitate aggregation for electoral contests spanning multiple jurisdictions
• Machine-readable, standard audit result reporting formats, including audit units selected and discrepancies found

Detail
A “batch” is a physically identifiable collection of paper records (or ballots) that is separately tallied in the electronic vote totals. Every vote record must be assigned to one and only one batch. Batches may be organized by geographic boundaries (e.g., one or more batches from the same precinct or polling place) or by other forms of proximity (e.g., batches formed from among ballots received at the same central location, or cast on the same early voting machine). Most currently used batches, such as whole precincts, are too large to support efficient audits. We strongly urge that voting equipment support collecting and reporting votes for arbitrarily many, arbitrarily small batches, down to individual ballots, in a standard, machine-readable format. Ballot confidentiality, however, must always be ensured. Voter-verifiable records should meet usability standards. For instance, DRE voter-verifiable paper audit trails (VVPATs) produced on spools of thin, narrow paper can be difficult to handle and audit. Further research may be needed to determine appropriate standards. There should also be standards for digitizing and storing ballot-image data.

Voting system reports should facilitate accounting for each ballot accepted and the outcomes of every contest choice on each ballot. Reporting should capture rich information about accepted ballots, including:

• Batch identifier
• Precinct identifier
• Equipment used (e.g., make, model and machine serial number)
• Ballot style identifier
• Voting mode (e.g., early-vote, mail-in absentee, election day, provisional)
• Place of voting (e.g., physical location where the vote was cast or the mailed in ballot received)
• Whether the ballot is invalid or spoiled; and, for valid ballots, all votes recorded, undervotes and overvotes, for each listed contest.

Voting systems should make it easy to create detailed reports with subtotals by contest, by ballot batch, by precinct, or by scanner or tabulation machine.
One common, standardized data format is needed for reporting audit results, as well as initial election results. Implementation details are outside the scope of this letter; election auditing experts should participate in specifying these requirements.

In summary, we strongly recommend that the next version of the VVSG support auditing election outcomes by facilitating small-batch reporting in standardized electronic reporting formats, and usable voter-verifiable cast vote records.

The following individuals have endorsed this statement.*
Robert Adams, Deputy County Clerk, Bernalillo County New Mexico
Vittorio Addona, Assistant Professor, Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science, Macalester College
Arlene S. Ash, PhD Professor, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA and ASA Fellow
Lonna Atkeson, Professor of Political Science, University of New Mexico
Mary Batcher, PhD and ASA Fellow
Sean Flaherty, Research Assistant, Verified Voting
Lynn Garland
Ed Gracely, PhD, Drexel University College of Medicine and School of Public Health
Mary W. Gray, Chair, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, American University, Washington, DC and ASA Fellow
Joseph Lorenzo Hall, Postdoctoral Research Associate, UC Berkeley School of Information/Princeton University Center for Information Technology Policy
Mark Halvorson, Founder and Director, Citizens for Election Integrity Minnesota
Mark Lindeman, Assistant Professor of Political Studies, Bard College
David Marker, Senior Statistician and Associate Director, Westat
Neal McBurnett, Election Auditing Consultant
John McCarthy, Computer Scientist (retired), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Walter Mebane, Professor of Political Science and Professor of Statistics at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
Ron Olson, member, Citizens Alliance for Secure Elections
Jane Platten, Director, Cuyahoga County Board of Elections, Ohio
Prof. Ronald L. Rivest, EECS Department, MIT
Ion Sancho, Supervisor of Elections, Leon County, Florida
Alexander Shvartsman, Professor of Computer Science and Engineering and Director of the Voting Technology Research Center at the University of Connecticut
Pamela Smith, President, Verified Voting Foundation
Philip Stark, Professor of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley
Luther Weeks, Executive Director, CTVotersCount

*Affiliations for identification purposes only.

About the author: Lonna R. Atkeson is a Professor and Regents’ Lecturer in the Political Science Department at the University of New Mexico. She studies public opinion and political behavior and is currently involved in several projects related to election reform, evaluation of election performance, and the formation of attitudes. You can find additional information about he at: www.unm.edu/~atkeson.

Why Rig Elections? Because it Works.

The Economist has an article this week on why people rig elections.  The answer is, because it works really well.  As the summary report of the key findings notes:

  • Using dirty tactics during elections helps politicians that are already in office. If they use illegal practices to win elections, they can expect to be in office around 2.5 times longer than if they participated in fair elections;
  • Dirty elections are bad for economic growth by skewing politicians’ incentives towards pursuing bad policies rather than good ones;
  • Checks and balances are effective in reducing the incentives to cheat and implement bad policies.
  • International aid has no clear effect on the quality of elections, unless there are effective checks and balances.
  • Small, poor but resource-rich countries are more prone to dirty elections.

In short, as the Economist notes,

Incumbents running in clean elections average six and a bit years in office; in rigged votes, 16 years. “Well, duh,” says Duncan Green, head of research at Oxfam, a British charity. Fair enough, it is obvious—but ten extra years may be more than expected.

Strikingly, the authors contend that “dirty elections are bad for economic growth by skewing politicians’ incentives.” This is because, they find, good economic performance makes a huge difference to an incumbent’s chance of re-election whether the vote is free or rigged, adding about three years’ to his or her tenure. Although economic success wins rewards in both systems, in clean ones, it adds 40% to a president’s time, whereas in dirty ones, the rewards of growth are swamped by those of rigging, which more than doubles the time in power. So rigging makes the economy less important to a president’s future—a rejoinder to the Chinese claim that in developing countries “managed democracy” is better for growth than an electoral free-for-all.

Obviously, not all developing countries rig the polls. Big nations seem less likely to rig than small ones—perhaps because they have more competing interest groups, making it harder to fake credibility by staging a poll win. Large government revenues from raw-material taxes makes rigging more likely by increasing incentives to get your hands on all that money. A few things make rigging less likely: term limits, the independence of the courts, parliament or press. And aid makes almost no difference. Even if outsiders are keeping the entire country afloat, their influence is patchy. As Mr Karzai earlier showed.

The full report can be found here.

Open source voting systems … in the news

There’s been a recent flurry of news regarding open source voting systems.

Last week, there was an event in LA where the Open Source Digital Voting Foundation discussed the release of some of their new open source voting system software. Here’s a story from Wired.

And here is a press release from Sequoia Voting Systems regarding a new open source voting system they have developed.

More on this soon.

Election Fraud story in NY Times

There’s an interesting story in today’s Week in Review section titled “Why Russians Ignore Ballot Fraud.” Michael’s colleague Peter Ordeshook has written about election forensics with a focus on Russia, and may have additional thoughts on the article.

One point that readers might find interesting is the description of how a biostatistician found evidence of fraud in Russia.  It gives a pretty basic outline of election forensics, the same basic approach that was used to examine fraud in Iran and Afghanistan.

The disappointing part of the story is the apparent attitude of the Russian public.  I wonder if that part of the story is accurate.

Congress passes MOVE act

Congress passed the MOVE Act yesterday, the Military and Overseas Voter Empowerment Act.

Fellowship at FairVote

Just got this email from Rob Ritchie.  Fair Vote is a great organization.  I hope our readers can distribute this among qualified young people.

Tell a young person about our Democracy Fellowship program!

FairVote always has relied heavily on volunteer interns. We also have paid democracy fellowships in which participants earn a living wage while getting great experience working in our national office. We are accepting applications right now for fellowships running from January to July 2010 and September 2010 to July 2011. Click here to share our job announcement with anyone you think might be interested in this great opportunity to make a difference.

Ballot delivery begins in Afghan runoff

Here is an interesting AP story, with photos,regarding the logistical difficulties the Afghans are encountering as they prepare the presidential runoff election.