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Last day of FL early voting is big

The last day of in-person early voter in Florida ended the period with a bang — total turnout on the last Sunday was about triple four years ago, and the Democratic share was even greater than four years ago. For the entire period, the relative Democratic share of the in-person early vote has been greater […]

FL Early Voting through Saturday: Steady as She Goes

Here are the latest statistics for in-person early voting in Florida. The two patterns I have been following, total turnout and partisan composition, continue to hold. First, turnout for in-person early voting continued to exceed 2010, with aggregate turnout about 20% above 2010. Second, the partisan composition of the in-person early voting electorate has remained […]

FL Early Voting through the Final Friday

More than a million people have now voted early in Florida. As I noted yesterday, the growth in non-party registrants is really the story here, as is the shift in favor of Democrats compared to Republicans. Cumulative early voting through Friday: (click on the image to see the full graph)   Day-to-day Democratic/Republican share of […]

A first-cut detailed look at FL early voters

This must be brief, but I’ve been able to merge the registration and voter history files in Florida from 2010 with the early voting records from 2014.  Here are some first-cut comparisons at the individual level.  (Remember, another quarter million Floridians are still yet to vote early in this cycle.) The thing that jumps out […]

FL Early Voting Turnout by County

I have been asked about the geographic distribution of the in-person early voting shifts in Florida from 2010 to 2014.  Here are some quick graphs, using data through yesterday. 1.  The graph of the percentage change in in-person early voting turnout, from 2010 to 2014.  On the whole, fairly uniform increases throughout, with notable exceptions. […]

FL Early Voting through Thursday

FL continues to outpace 2010 early voting totals by about 10%. Unlike 2010, the partisan pattern has remained fairly constant for the entire two-week period. The only question remaining is whether there will be a sharp up-tick in Democratic composition these last days, or whether the shift in composition will continue to be more gradual. […]

Small change in FL early voting trends

First, the consistency in this year’s early voting trends: the volume exceeds 2010. Second, the deviation: the stark partisan contrast with 2010 did not appear yesterday. At this point in 2010, the Democratic share of the in-person early voting population began to shoot up, as the election approached. Yesterday, there was a small increase in […]

FL Early Voting Statistics through Monday

Florida’s in-person early voting period is now in full swing. The following two graphs, which update previous posts, show two things: Graph 1: About 70,000 more people have voted early, compared to the same time in 2010. Graph 2: For each day of early voting, the composition of in-person early voters has been (on the […]

I want your ballots!

As readers of this blog know, I am interested in better understanding why long lines form at (some) polling places. One common claim, or hypothesis, is that a big culprit is ballot length. Unfortunately, it is very hard to test this claim empirically, because of the difficulty in getting a good sample of ballots from […]

Update on FL Early Voting with Saturday Data

Here is the update on in-person early voting statistics, in three graphs. First is the day-to-day in-person early voting turnout, compared to 2010. Because all counties have now begun early voting, I don’t account for when counties started.  (Over twenty counties opened their in-person early voting operations yesterday.)Unlike 2010, 2014 was the biggest day of […]