Coping with high turnout

Finally, it’s Election Day!

High turnout is expected in states like Alabama, Arizona, California –in particular in Los Angeles, Napa and Solano, Monterrey and Ventura counties, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Lousiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Texas.

The highest expected turnout is in Connecticut, where the Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz “expects as many as 90 percent of state voters will cast ballots Tuesday.” Also, close to 80% turnout is expected by election officials in Arizona, some California counties —Los Angeles, Monterrey, Napa and Solano, and Ventura, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, and St. Louis Missouri. Several other regions expect turnout to be close to 75%.

As noted by The New York Times, “high turnout may add to problems at polling places.” This has alerted election watchdogs, and large numbers of official, partisan and independent election watchers have been deployed around the country –for instance, in New Mexico.

In Connecticut, Bysiewicz feels confident about being able to cope with the torrent because “the state is using optical scan voting machines instead of the old lever machines.”

Counties like St. Louis, Missouri, have prepared by recruiting and training poll workers, including “high school and college-age techno-savvy troubleshooters.” The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that “the board was flooded with applications from people wanting to work the polls” and they have been turning them away because they have enough pollworkers. Other regions which have been recruiting student as polling place administrators are Washtenaw County, Fresno County, and Chicago.

In New Hampshire election officials have prepared for record turnout “by adding voting machines, extending polling hours and printing extra ballots.” Similarly, in Alabama “election officials have added extra poll workers and printed more ballots to try to meet the demand for a history-making election”. In Dallas County, Texas, “officials have prepared for massive turnout. They used a federal grant to buy an additional 1,000 voting booths and added extra training classes for poll workers. They expect to have 4,000 workers deployed to the county’s 500 polling sites.”

In Pennsylvania, two recent court decisions –provision of emergency paper ballots and allowing voters to wear partisan attire, have forced counties to train workers throughout the weekend. According to AP, “if more emergency paper ballots are cast Tuesday, vote counting will take longer and poll workers will have to keep track of all those ballots and make sure none get lost.” In Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, “the county has hired about 160 extra poll workers, bringing the total countywide to more than 6,600 to staff 1,321 polling places. In addition to normal training for new poll workers, the bureau has provided extra training in how to handle provisional or emergency paper ballots.”

In those states requiring voters to present a photo ID —Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan and South Dakota, newspapers have been active in reminding voters about the requirement, or otherwise they may face problems such as having to cast provisional ballots.

Some election officials, like Dean Logan from Los Angeles County, recommend voters to avoid high voting hours like early morning and late afternoon.

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I love technology

Despite optimistic predictions about election day, concerns remain.  Electronic voting, including optical scanners, DRE’s and the absence of VVPAT’s, are all issues of concern, especially in states that do not offer early voting and are thus more likely to be overwhelmed by tomorrow’s turnout.  Computerworld has a database where you can search for reported voting technology problems by state, machine type, vendor, machine model, and more.  A Princeton computer scientist warns against the dangers of all types of voting technology.  However, he does not suggest that getting rid of them will make elections secure.  Rather, he says it is effective administration, including audits and strict chain of custody procedures, which make elections, however technical, run smoothly.

The New York Times ran an excellent piece today on the constantly changing methods of voting.  They look at how many counties have gone from high tech electronic voting back to paper ballots and optical scanning, while pointing out that both methods of voting are equally prone to errors.  While machines may flip votes, precincts may run out of paper ballots and voters may fill out them out wrong, making them unreadable by optical scanners.  (You can watch a slide show from the New Mexico Audit Project, with examples of spoiled ballots, here). Some problems can always be expected due to a system that is “still in flux” as a result of transitioning to new voting systems.

That is why, regardless of the method of voting, in the end it comes down good public administration. “No election is ever going to be 100 percent accurate, because you have human beings involved.”  However, as election administrators plan for contingent situations, such as ballot shortages or power outages, problems at the polls become much less likely and much more manageable, regardless of the technology of choice.

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On the radio

In recent days there have been countless radio shows covering the gamut of election issues.  So, for those of you who want to double your news intake, you can listen while you read your morning news. Here are just a few of today’s stories featuring elections…

All Things Considered discusses the possibility of some voter intimidation, while acknowledging that election day should still go well.  In another short piece, they talk about “democracy’s unsung heroes”-the poll workers. According to Tell Me More Voting Rights groups say some states may not be ready for election day.  And Morning Edition reports that early voting has been well received. NPR’s News & Notes asks how to tell the difference between voter suppression and regular old disorganization at the polls. KCRW’s To The Point looks at early voting and the already mounting claims of fraud and disenfranchisement. Diane Rehm tells us what to watch for tomorrow as part of her countdown to election. And don’t forget to check out this great piece on RadioWest that covers early voting, internet voting, voting technology, and other key issues in the present and future of elections.

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You can check out the this link for a compilation of poll results based on samples of early voters. These are the National results:

National Early Voting

Fox News (11/1-11/2) (29% of sample)
Obama 48% (+1)
McCain 47%

NBC/Wall Street Journal (11/1-11/2) (30% of sample)
No breakdown of early voters. Text says: “The early voters’ views reflect to overall electorate’s.” Obama leads by 8 points, 51%-43% in the overall poll.

Diageo/Hotline (10/31/11/2) (27% of sample)
Obama 51% (+5)
McCain 46%

CBS/NYT (10/29-10/31) (20% of sample)Obama 57% (+19)McCain 38%NOTE: The Final CBS poll, taken 10/31-11/2, included 24% who had already voted, but CBS did not provide a separate breakdown of who they voted for.

Diageo/Hotline (10/30-11/1) (27% of sample)Obama 51% (+5)McCain 46%

Pew (10/30-11/1) (26% of sample)Results of already voted not reported separately

Democracy Corps (10/30-11/2) (22% of sample)Results of already voted not reported separately

ABC/Wash. Post (10/29-10/31) (16% of sample)Results of already voted not reported separately

Zogby (10/30-11/1) (?% of sample)Obama 56% (+17)McCain 39%

Gallup (10/30-11/2) (28% of sample)No data, but Gallup says the results “skew toward Obama”

Gallup (10/27-10/29) (21% of sample)Obama 55% (+15)McCain 40%

CBS/NYTimes (10/25-10/29) (17% of sample)Obama 55% (+20)McCain 35%

Fox News (10/28-10/29) (22% of sample)Obama 52% (+9)McCain 43%

Hotline/Diageo (10/27-10/29) (19% of sample) Obama 55% (+19) McCain 36%

Economist (Oct. 25-27) (23% of sample) Obama 59% (+18) McCain 41%

ABC/Wash. Post (Oct. 26-29) (11% of sample) Obama 59% (+19) McCain 40%

Harris (Oct. 20-27) (12% of sample) Obama 51% (+9) McCain 42%

Gallup (Oct. 25-28) (18% of sample) Obama 53% (+10) McCain 43%

Diageo/Hotline (Oct. 25-28) (17% of sample reports having already voted; no breakdown of how they voted.)

Pew (Oct. 23-26) A national Pew survey of roughly 1500 voters found that 15% had already voted, but did not provide a breakdown of who they voted for.

Also, here’s a memo from the Obama campaign with it’s own data breakdown for some key states, comparing 2008 early voting turnout by party with the numbers from 2004.

According to Michael McDonald, these are not “exit polls” but “simply pre-election polls conducted by various polling organizations that have large enough samples of early voters to report their support for candidates.”

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Political markets: Who will win and how many will vote…

Mike and Thad have both mentioned political markets before.  With the election just a day away, they are worth looking at again:

As of Monday afternoon, Obama is trading at .92 on Iowa Electronic Markets,  .89 on Newsfutures.com, and .91 on Intrade.com.  While polls (pollster, fivethirtyeight) may show the race to be neck and neck, political markets often give more accurate predictions.

Beyond the presidential race, you can also look at state races, ballot initiatives (like CA’s Proposition 8 trading at 34.5 on Intrade), and even predictions on voter turnout.

Current predictions on voter turnout:

>50% 97.6

>55% 94.2

>60% 54.9

>65%   8.8

It will be interesting to see how accurate they are.  Then again, if you do not trust polls and markets, you can always follow the St. Petersburg barbershop poll.  The barbershop serves middle aged white professionals, and “[t]he poll hasn’t picked a Democrat since Lawton Chiles for governor [of FL] in 1990…It went against Clinton in 1996 and in ’92.”  Not this year: Obama is up 112 to 87.  There seems to be a trend here…

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Thad on RadioWest

There was a great interview on KUER’s RadioWest this morning which discussed several issues of interest to Election Updates readers. The first half of the show covers the history of voting, and the second half, with Thad as special guest, covers the present and future of voting.  They discuss early voting, internet voting, voting technology and election administration, amongst other things.

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Use of partisan slogans: Contrasting decisions

Public Opinion reports that Franklin County, Ohio, “will require you to remove or cover” partisan slogans “if you wear them to the polls on Tuesday, despite the gauntlet of aggressive supporters and campaign workers you may face a mere 10 feet from the polling place.” According to this story, “that’s contrary to a September memo issued by the Pennsylvania Department of State advising counties to let voters in partisan attire cast ballots, so long as they take no additional action to influence others.”

Differently, KPCC in an interview with an L.A. County pollworker trainer, reports that “if (a voter) shows up wearing political paraphernalia”, L.A. County pollworkers “would ask them to remove the item while they are voting in the polling place.” But, “if a voter refuses to remove a political button”, pollworkers are instructed to “just let them vote and leave the polling place as quickly as possible.”

In relation to campaign workers keeping distance from polling places, the St. Petersburg Times wrote that as a result of early voting lines in Pinellas County (Florida) which “snaked well around the block “, “candidates took advantage of the captive audience, handing out brochures and chatting,” in spite of the fact that “State law bans campaigning within 100 feet of the polling place.”

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Election administrators ready for Tuesday, …or not?

Less than two days before Election Day, the main factors election administrators nationwide are worrying about, given the large expected turnout, are the number of poll workers -in particular,  well trained poll workers, the number of voting machines, the number of voting booths, the number of paper and provisional ballots, the rules governing ID requirements, where to establish “end-of-the-lines” to close at reasonable hours, and how to address voter use of partisan slogans.

In general, most election administrators feel confident about some of the listed factors, but not about others. Though several say that they are ready, others seem on the verge of a nervous breakdown –such as the executive director of the National Association of Election Officials, who told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that “there are so many things that could make this thing difficult that it just drives you insane.”

Also, one wonders about the consequences of last minute measures intended to solve problems such as long waiting lines, when Florida’s Secretary of State Kurt Browning says that “there (is) no law requiring people to vote in a privacy booth. If booths are full,  he said, why not set out some tables?”

A manager for electionline.org Sean Greene summarizes well the uncertainty regarding Tuesday’s voting when he says “There’s always the chance that it’ll be fine.”

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More on voting techonology

The New York Times reports that an ImageCast machine will be available at each polling location in Westchester County, New York. According to the story, “the county intends to replace all mechanical lever-style voting machines by next year.” The ImageCast machines “work on principles similar to general-use machines scheduled for use next year, including touch screens that allow voters to see their options and scanners that print paper ballots for verification. ” Further, These machines have the potential of helping voters with disabilities because they count with “an audio component for voters with compromised sight, and a sip-and-puff attachment and foot paddles for voters with limited or no upper-body movement.” However, the use of these machines also carries disadvantages: “The machines are the most technologically complex the county has dealt with – votes take an average of 15 minutes to complete, instructors said. That has required added training for the poll workers. Election officials said they had been running two-and-a-half-hour training classes.” Nonetheless, “several attendees later said they felt they would need additional training, given the complicated nature of the machine.”

Another frequent issue with voting machines is that even though they should be delivered on time to polling places, this is not always the case. In the September 2004 election in New Orleans regarding gay marriage, voting machines arrived late in “at least 59 precincts.” According to The Times-Picayune, on that ocassion “some voters had to return to polling places two and three times to cast ballots. Officials at the time blamed miscommunication for the delays, saying in part that truck drivers had been unable to get into locked schools and other buildings used as polling places.” However, “this time, officials say 928 voting machines will be in place by Monday. And for good measure, they said two dozen spare machines will be on standby at the city’s warehouse.”

Returning to the issue of the sometimes excessive number of voters per machine, the Los Angeles Times reports that in the Young Sr. Elementary School in Norfolk, Virginia, the surge in registration can lead to 350 voters per machine. The story adds that due the long early voting lines observed nationwide, plus the low number of voting machines relative to the high expected turnout on election day, “watchdogs are worried that hundreds of thousands of would-be voters at places like Young Elementary will give up on casting ballots if lines are long Tuesday, dealing a blow to voting rights far more serious than the claims of voter intimidation and malfunctioning machinery that make headlines.”

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution also warns that in Georgia “election officers may find they’ve placed too few voting machines in polling places that experience uncharacteristically high turnouts.”

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Voting Technology

In Franklin County, Ohio, shorter lines are expected for Tuesday because, as reported by The Columbus Dispatch, “there will be more machines overall than in 2004.” The expected number of voters per machine for Election Day is 106 –taking both early voting and an 80% turnout into account, compared to 170 in 2004. The situation in 2004 was even worse in Columbus County, with a median of 276 voters per machine. However, the newspaper points out that “less-extreme waits in the central city could come at the expense of some suburban voters. Their polling places will get a smaller share of electronic touch-screen machines based on a new distribution plan that considers ballot length.”

Waits are also expected to be shorter in Florida because of the large number of early votes cast –which according to the GMU early voting statistics, stands at 54% of the 2004 total vote, and according to the St. Petersburg Times surpassed 35% of the number of registered voters. Moreover, the St. Petersburg Times adds that “voters will be using optical scan ballots for the first time, and election officials expect it to take them longer to vote on the new system than it did on the old touch screen machines.” However, the expected increase in voter turnout could drive the number of voters per precinct per hour up to 67 in 2008, compared to 60 in 2004. Nonetheless, the newspaper reports that the precinct capacity increased in 2008 compared to 2004: “In Pinellas, an average of 72 voters an hour could go through each precinct, an increase of six over 2004. Hillsborough’s per-precinct traffic stands to increase to 77 voters an hour, up four voters over 2004. In Miami-Dade County, where there are fewer precincts per voter, the traffic could increase by 20 voters an hour.”

Ballot counting will probably be quicker in some Vermont communities due to the introduction of vote-tabulating machines . AP reports that “since the 2006 election when human error prompted a recount and reversal of Vermont’s election for auditor, 30 more Vermont communities now have vote-tabulating machines bringing the total to 103.” However, even though the Secretary of State office “noticed that towns with voting machines had more accurate results”, and though the H.A.V.A. offered free optical scanning machines to the remaining communities with at least 750 voters, those communities preferred to to continue counting ballots by hand. Charlotte Town Clerk Mary Mead said that the reason for turning down the offer is that “although the tabulator machine may make things easier, there is something to be said about real people coming together and the spirit of such tradition. You certainly can’t count on a machine to replicate that.”

In California, A.P. reports that some county registrars are concerned about ballot counting getting slow in those counties who “have been adjusting to a shift to paper ballots after Secretary of State Debra Bowen limited the use of touchscreen machines last year because of security concerns.” But how much longer can the ballot count take? According to A.P., “during the 2004 presidential election, Riverside County used electronic machines and tallied the votes cast at polling places in six hours. (…) This year, officials are planning for a 36-hour count and that’s after borrowing two more machines to scan paper ballots.” According to Michael Alvarez, cited by AP, “a rise in the number of first-time voters also might drag out the tally.”

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