I’ve created a simple Minnesota recount scorecard Excel spreadsheet, which is available for download here. I’ve updated it with results from Day 2.
Both today’s and yesterday’s recounted precincts are more Republican than the remaining precincts, so it’s reasonable to expect that Franken might pull closer to parity at a faster rate tomorrow and Saturday (assuming weekend counting). However, I think we should start asking what happens if there’s a tie….
I have run some simple multivariate analyses, trying to see if the number of challenged ballots varies across counties, once we have taken into account effects like vote counting method, partisanship, and the residual vote rate. And, yes, there are considerable differences across counties. Some problems with old Optech Eagles in St. Louis County have been noted in the press, and St. Louis does appear to top the list in vote changes through the recount, even after controlling for the factors I mention. But, Cook, Fillmore, and Pipestone Counties also have lots of changes, while Ramsey and Anoka Counties are very low. Minnesota is to be commended for its transparent recount process and the tireless efforts of the volunteers, but even here, some geographic variability seems to be creeping in. We’ll see if the pattern continues tomorrow.